The Midwest & Southeast: Flooding and Severe Threat
A slow-moving low-pressure system is currently developing over the upper Midwest (Minnesota and Iowa). Because this system is cut off from the main jet stream flow, it won't be in any rush to leave.
Midwest Risk: Heavy rain, potential flash flooding, and a 2% tornado risk are expected across parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois (including St. Louis and Columbia).
The Southeast Pivot: As moisture rushes in from the Gulf of Mexico, a super-saturated air mass will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the South and Southeast.
Sunday Outlook: Expect a very rainy, stormy finish to the weekend across almost all eastern states, with heavy downpours sweeping through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
Tropical Update: What’s Happening in the Atlantic?
While the National Hurricane Center currently shows no active tropical threats for the next 7 days, long-range forecast models are hinting at some "noise."
Computer models (like the GFS and European runs) show a weak tropical wave meandering around high-pressure systems near the Southwest Atlantic. While model runs have been flipping back and forth, weather enthusiasts should keep an eye on this region as we head deeper into August—the peak of hurricane season.
The Bottom Line
Expect a wet, unpredictable start to August across the Eastern US. Keep your umbrellas handy, stay alert for local flash flood warnings, and ensure your severe weather alerts are turned on!